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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."